Prediction model: the Netherlands have an 87.6 percent chance of the European title
After the pool phase of the European Championship korfball, the Netherlands have an 87.6 percent chance of the European title according to the KORFBALINC prediction model. Belgium follow with 10.9 percent. Germany (1.1 percent) and the Czech Republic (0.4 percent) are the only other countries with a small chance.
Automatically translated from Dutch. Read the Dutch original.
- 838 goals in 24 pool matches, not a single golden goal.
- Ran Faber is top scorer after the pools with sixteen goals.
- Tuesday the Netherlands - England, Wednesday the Netherlands - Czech Republic.
The 24 pool matches produced 838 goals, an average of 34.9 per match. Not a single match went to a golden goal. Most matches were one-sided: only three ended with a margin of fewer than five goals. The Czech Republic beat England 18‑17, Slovakia beat Serbia 19‑17 and Turkey beat Slovakia 15‑12.
Kans op de Europese titel
Nederland: 87,6%
België: 10,9%
Duitsland: 1,1%
Tsjechië: 0,4%
Bron: worldkorfball.sport. Model: KORFBALINC, 20.000 keer nagespeeld.
Oranje in a class of their own
The Netherlands won their three pool matches with 131 goals for and 18 against. Against Catalonia (48‑3), Oranje scored 29 times in a row, the longest run of the tournament. The Czech Republic scored fifteen times in a row against Wales (16‑1).
Doelsaldo na de poulefase
- Nederland: 113
- België: 63
- Duitsland: 46
- Tsjechië: 40
Engeland: 36
Portugal: 15
Turkije: 5
Alleen landen met een positief doelsaldo. Bron: worldkorfball.sport.
The Netherlands provide five of the ten best scorers. Ran Faber scored sixteen times, Alwin Out fifteen times. Fleur Hoek and Belgium's Joke van Maldeghem follow with fourteen goals.
Topscorers in de poulefase
- Ran Faber: 16 doelpunten
- Alwin Out: 15 doelpunten
- Fleur Hoek: 14 doelpunten
- Joke van Maldeghem: 14 doelpunten
- Erva Duman: 12 doelpunten
- Júlio Duraes Ruivo: 12 doelpunten
- Daniëlle Boadi: 12 doelpunten
- Petr Galicek: 12 doelpunten
Bron: worldkorfball.sport.
How the goals are scored
More than half of the goals (442 of the 838) were recorded by the IKF as mid-range shots. One in seven goals was a penalty (122). These are followed by the run-in (104) and the short shot (91).
Hoe vielen de doelpunten?
- Middellange afstand: 52,7%
- Strafworp: 14,6%
- Doorloopbal: 12,4%
- Kort schot: 10,9%
- Afstandsschot: 6,2%
- Vrije bal: 3,2%
Zoals de IKF ze in het wedstrijdverloop noteert; dat gebeurt niet bij elke wedstrijd even precies.
The road to the final
In the second round, the numbers one and two of pool A and D play crosswise against each other, as do those of pool B and C. The head-to-head result from the pool counts. The Netherlands play England on Tuesday and the Czech Republic on Wednesday. Belgium face Turkey and Germany.
According to the model, the Netherlands are virtually certain to reach the semi-final, as are Belgium (99.8 percent). The Czech Republic (88.1 percent) and Germany (78.7 percent) have the best chance of the other two places. Portugal still have 20.7 percent.
Kans op de halve finale
- Nederland: 100%
- België: 99,8%
- Tsjechië: 88,1%
- Duitsland: 78,7%
- Portugal: 20,7%
- Engeland: 7,8%
Catalonië: 4,2%
Bron: worldkorfball.sport. Model: KORFBALINC, 20.000 keer nagespeeld.
How the model works
The model estimates how strong each country's attack and defence are, based on the goals in the pool phase. Because no country played against a country from another pool in the pools, it also uses the IKF world ranking to compare the pools. It then simulates the rest of the tournament 20,000 times. Form on the day, injuries and substitutions are not included.
The semi-finals are on Thursday 22 October in Zlín, the final on Saturday 24 October at 15:15.